Mortgage Blog

Fall 2025 Canadian Mortgage Trends & Insights Report

November 21, 2025 | Posted by: Brandi Pierik and Matthew Pierik - Red Deer and Calgary Mortgage Brokers

Did You Know ?

Did you know that despite encouraging signs of stabilization in the Canadian mortgage market this fall, the national household debt-to-income ratio remained at an eye-opening 181.8 % in Q2 of 2025, reversing seven straight quarters of decline? That's right, for every dollar of disposable income Canadian households had in that quarter, there was about $1.82 of debt. (Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Fall 2025 Report) And while the national mortgage delinquency rate dipped slightly, one province, Ontario, saw an alarming year-over-year jump of 44 %, rising to 0.23 % in Q2 2025. These figures are prompting mortgage professionals, lenders and borrowers alike to take a closer look at the underlying trends. So the question isn't just "What's happening?" but rather "What does this mean for homeowners, borrowers, and advisors in the months ahead?"

Introduction

As our team of seasoned advisors working with clients across Canada, we've been monitoring the fall edition of CMHC's Residential Mortgage Industry Report (RMIR) very closely. The latest findings give us important signals, both cautionary and opportunistic, about borrower behaviour, lender activity, and macro-housing finance risk in the Canadian market. In this blog post, we'll walk through the key themes from the report, offer context, interpret what it means for mortgage clients, and provide actionable takeaways for homeowners, borrowers, and industry professionals alike. Our aim is to build trust, transparency and forward-looking guidance, so you can navigate the mortgage landscape with confidence and clarity.

Key Insights from the Fall 2025 Report

The full RMIR provides a rich set of data and trends. Here are some of the most noteworthy themes for this fall:

• Borrower behaviour is shifting. After a period of strong interest in variable-rate mortgages, we are seeing a rebound in fixed-rate 3 to 5 year terms. At chartered banks, fixed-rate mortgages with 3 to less than 5 year terms reached 43 % of newly extended mortgages in August 2025.
• Mortgage debt is rising again. Total residential mortgage debt in Canada reached about $2.3 trillion by August 2025, up 4.8 % from a year earlier.
• Household leverage remains elevated. The household debt-to-disposable-income ratio stood at 181.8 % in Q2 2025, after seven quarters of decline.
• Delinquency and stress are regionally uneven. National mortgage delinquency rates dipped slightly, but Ontario's delinquency rate rose 44 % year-over-year to 0.23 % in Q2 2025, with Toronto at 0.24 %.
• Lenders' market shares are shifting. The Big 6 banks increased their market share of originated mortgages to about 59 %, driven in part by consolidation such as Royal Bank of Canada's acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada.
• Originations grew. The first half of 2025 saw mortgage originations, purchases, refinances and switches, grow compared with the same period in 2024, helped by increases in insured mortgages and refinances.

Context & What It Means

Putting the data into perspective, what is behind these trends and how should borrowers and advisors think about them?

First, the rebound in fixed rate mortgages suggests that borrowers are seeking stability in uncertain economic times. With interest rate expectations becoming more volatile, the appeal of locking in a fixed payment is understandable. This has implications for mortgage planning, borrowers who locked into shorter-term fixed or variable rates earlier may now face rate renewal shock or shifting options.

Second, mortgage debt growth and elevated leverage highlight potential vulnerability. While debt levels improved for several quarters, the rebound means many households are still holding large debt burdens relative to income. That matters because when interest rates rise or economic growth slows, servicing that debt becomes more challenging.

Third, the regional variation matters. A national delinquency rate of approximately 0.22 % might look benign on the surface, but when a major province registers a 44 % increase year-over-year, the risk becomes more tangible. Advisors and borrowers must consider local market conditions, not just national averages.

Fourth, lender consolidation and market share shifts indicate competitive pressure and changing dynamics in the industry. For clients, this means fewer but larger players, which could impact product offerings, service levels, and negotiation power.

Finally, the growth in originations suggests that despite headwinds, there remains demand, both for purchase and refinance. That is a positive sign, but it also means the tailwinds may mask underlying risk if household finances weaken.

What Homeowners and Borrowers Should Do

Based on these insights, here is a suggested action plan for Canadian homeowners and borrowers:

• Review your renewal timeline and assess whether your current term and rate remain appropriate in this environment.
• Reassess your debt load and serviceability in light of possible rate increases or income changes.
• Consider longer-term fixed rates if you value payment certainty and are concerned about rate volatility.
• Stay aware of local market conditions and do not rely solely on national figures.
• Engage early with a trusted advisor to explore your options.
• Maintain a financial buffer for unexpected changes or rising costs.

Stats Section

Key indicators highlighting Canada's current mortgage environment:

• Residential mortgage debt of approximately $2.3 trillion.
• Household debt-to-disposable-income ratio of 181.8 %.
• Household debt-to-GDP ratio of 100.2 %.
• 43 % of new mortgages at chartered banks were 3 to 5 year fixed terms.
• Ontario delinquency rate increased to 0.23 %.
• Big 6 banks now hold approximately 59 % market share of new mortgage originations.

Top 10 FAQs

• Is now a good time to lock in a fixed-rate mortgage? It may be smart for payment certainty if volatility concerns you.
• Should I worry about national debt ratios? Focus on your personal debt position.
• Are regional markets safe? Not all regions perform equally.
• How does consolidation affect me? It may reduce product variety.
• What should I do before renewal? Plan early and review options.
• Are long amortizations risky? They increase long-term interest.
• Does region affect risk? Yes, significantly.
• How to protect from rate rises? Stress test your budget.
• Are variable rates risky? They carry uncertainty.
• How should advisors guide clients? Focus on transparency and risk awareness.

Final Thoughts

Our team, we believe well-informed clients make better decisions. The Fall 2025 CMHC report shows a mix of stability and caution. While the market is not in crisis, it is evolving and requires thoughtful planning.

Now is the time for homeowners to review mortgage strategies, assess risk, and prepare for upcoming renewals. With clarity, planning and professional guidance, the path forward can remain secure and confident.

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